US BONDS RISK INTENSIFIES! Investors Worldwide Turn to Gold For Seeking Safety. |AsianQuickTake
Welcome to Asian QuickTake! In this episode, we delve into the complex world of inflation, bonds, and gold, and their impact on the global financial landscape.
Tags: Inflation, US Economy, Federal Reserve, Bond Market, Treasury Bonds, Gold Reserves, US Dollar, Central Banks, Gold Standard.
On September 12, 2023, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s internal models painted a promising picture of inflation seemingly tamed through a series of interest rate hikes, steering the U.S. economy toward a gentle landing. However, caution looms as Wall Street remembers the Fed’s earlier misjudgment of inflation.
Economic data hints at a resurgence of inflation in the United States, with international oil prices soaring and the U.S. ISM Services Index unexpectedly reaching a six-month peak. The looming question is whether service sector inflation will influence further rate hikes this year.
Wall Street anticipates a robust 0.6% month-over-month surge in the August Consumer Price Index (CPI), adding pressure to the Federal Reserve’s inflation-containment efforts. The U.S. bond market is not immune, with the yield on the 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury surging to %, signaling inflation expectations.
Traders anticipate an intensification of the yield curve inversion between the two-year and 10-year yields, historically associated with economic recessions.
The real federal funds rate in the U.S. has dwindled significantly when adjusted for core inflation, and yields on high-yield corporate bonds are below the inflation rate, amplifying investment risks.
Signs of an implicit default are emerging in U.S. Treasuries due to persistent high inflation expectations. This could result in real negative returns for bond investors.
Concerns over U.S. Treasury defaults have not significantly increased despite expectations of central banks globally tightening their policies.
The U.S. dollar’s global hegemony faces challenges as the world economy recovers. Gold investments are gaining popularity, and central banks worldwide are increasing their gold holdings.
Historical precedents of gold confiscation in the U.S. have sparked demand for gold coins, with significant purchases by Americans.
Kansas has recognized gold and silver as having equal legal tender status, and there are calls for a return to the gold standard in the U.S.
Japanese individuals are acquiring gold as a hedge against rising inflation and market volatility, driving up retail gold prices in Japan.
The global demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and market turbulence continues to rise.
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