How to Build An Expected Goals Model 1: Data and Model

David Sumpter goes through the steps needed to create an expected goals model. This lecture covers: - Why Expected Goals are Important - Plotting 2D histogram of shot and goal positions - Shot angle - How probability of scoring depends on shot angle and distance The code for this lecture can be found here: Specifically, I use Using Wyscout data from: References discussed in lecture: Michael Caley on expected goals: Accuracy of expected goals: @Soccermatics/should-you-write-about-real-goals-or-expected-goals-a-guide-for-journalists-2cf0c7ec6bb6 Trigonometry of shot angle: Morales, César A. “A mathematics-based new penalty area in football: tackling diving.“ Journal of sports sciences 34, no. 24 (2016): 2233-2237.