Why Russia Miscalculated in Ukraine: A Self-Inflicted Disaster in Three Acts

Check out my book “What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War“: You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at (These are affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. This means that even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.) Why did Russia miscalculate so badly in its invasion of Ukraine? The answer is more than two decades in the making. Putin’s Persistent and intentional decay of Russia’s institutions made it impossible for Russia’s intelligence community and military to provide quality information to him. Facing the uncertainty---and wagering that it would take a true disaster for it have a deep effect on him personally---Putin pulled the trigger. 0:00 Introduction 2:01 Putin’s Rise to Power 4:54 The FSB Sets the Stage 6:11 How Would the West Respond? 10:20 How Resolved Was Ukraine? 13:59 The Military’s Optimism