China’s economy slows further. The End of 30Yrs of AU mining prosperity and property market.[APS052]
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[Australian Real Estate] China’s economy and real estate sector are going through a harsh winter! Australia’s economy faces structural changes, and the 30-year mining boom has ended. Will the Australian real estate market be affected? [Australian Property Strategy 316]
China is currently experiencing an economic winter characterised by a shrinking population, an aging problem, high unemployment rates, and a sharp decline in foreign direct investment (FDI). In light of the real estate crisis in China, highlighted by Evergrande’s bankruptcy, people are choosing not to buy homes, and developers are not purchasing land. Apart from China’s economy, Australia’s will have a direct impact.
China’s steel production accounts for more than half of the world’s total output, surpassing the combined total of the next 9 largest producers. Of the steel used domestically in China, one-third goes into residential construction. This is where the connection to Australia’s economy comes in: 60% of the iron ore used in China’s steel production is sourced from Australia, and 85% of Australia’s iron ore exports go to China. In 2023 alone, this trade brought Australia 105 billion dollars.
If the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) estimate holds true, and by 2050, the amount of steel used in China’s construction sector drops to one-sixth of what it was in 2019, the iron ore exports that have been a cornerstone of Australia’s GDP and government revenue could completely dry up. Does this mark the End of Australia’s 30-year mining boom? Has Australia’s economy entered an entirely new cycle? And will the Australian real estate market face a ripple effect, leading it into an era of slow growth?
00:00 China’s economy slows further.
01:21 Australia’s Economy is Directly Linked to China
03:18 Four Declines in China’s Housing Prices Over the Past 20 Years
03:37 The First Major Decline
04:39 The Second Major Decline
06:25 The Third Major Decline
07:24 The Fourth Major Decline
07:24 Nine Key Reasons for the Decline of China’s Real Estate Market
12:36 Australians Face 20 Years of Higher Taxes and Increased Debt
14:19 The Future of Australia’s Real Estate Market
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