US Treasury Keeps ISSUING DEBT, Creditors UNLOAD US Treasuries: DOLLAR CRISIS AHEAD | AsianQuickTake
Welcome to Asian QuickTake, your source for in-depth analysis on global politics and economic developments. I’m Jacob, and today we explore the escalating wave of “de-dollarization“ and its significant impact on the US dollar’s dominance in the international monetary system.
The US Treasury has issued over $9 trillion in debt during the first half of the year, marking a substantial 23% increase from the previous year. However, major creditors such as Japan, China, and the UK have been selling off US Treasuries, indicating a growing shift away from the US dollar.
China, in particular, has been actively reducing its holdings of US Treasury securities due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes, leading to falling security prices. Additionally, China’s concerns about the safety of US assets, especially after the Ukrainian crisis, have further contributed to the reduction.
Amidst financial opening-up and the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, China’s foreign securities investments are expected to become more diversified, diminishing the importance of the US in its investment strategies.
Global “de-dollarization“ sentiment is driven by several factors, including countries increasing their holdings of gold and embracing non-dollar currency settlements. The crisis in US banks, coupled with the debt ceiling issue, has undermined the credibility of US Treasuries, intensifying the US dollar crisis.
Morgan Stanley analysts warn that US political division poses risks to the long-term dominant position of the US dollar, potentially hindering the government’s ability to manage national debt and stabilize the economy during crises.
The trend of “de-dollarization“ poses significant risks for the stability of the US dollar and impacts various asset categories, including US stocks and long-term bonds. Investors are advised to reduce their exposure to the US dollar and US markets to mitigate risks arising from the weakening US dollar hegemony.
Although the US dollar will maintain its dominant position in the short term, the global landscape may witness continuous changes, potentially accelerating the trend of a weakened US dollar hegemony in phases. Overall, the change in the US dollar’s dominance will be a long-term evolutionary process.
As countries seek to promote domestic currency transactions and reduce reliance on the US dollar, the current “de-dollarization“ trend represents a manifestation of the US dollar system crisis. The relative decline of the US’s global position has spurred the need for alternatives, ultimately leading to a gradual waning of the US dollar’s influence.
China’s actions to reduce its holdings of US Treasuries exemplify its dissatisfaction with US policies and its attempt to counter US hegemony through “de-dollarization.“ The continuous issuance of a large number of government bonds by the US Treasury, along with major creditors selling off US Treasuries, further weakens the US dollar’s position and poses potential risks to the US economy.
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