U.S. TREASURY SELL-OFF SHAKE-UP! Risks of Rising Yields & Global Investor Concerns! |AsianQuickTake
In this episode, we delve into the turbulence shaking the U.S. Treasury market this week.
Widespread sell-offs drove the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to a rapid ascent of %, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. Investor concerns about rising rates and potential risks tied to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are on the rise.
August 24th revealed weak performances in recent Treasury bond auctions, with foreign investor purchases plummeting by 90% in the past two weeks. This dwindling confidence spotlights global uncertainty toward U.S. Treasuries.
Deutsche Bank’s report raises a critical question: Can investors continue to trust U.S. Treasuries in this high-risk environment? A potential U.S. government shutdown and credit rating downgrade further fuel apprehensions of a premature economic downturn.
U.S. budget deficit and interest payments on national debt surged, intensifying concerns. Moody’s projects rising U.S. corporate debt defaults, stemming from high borrowing costs and regional bank crises.
Bank of America warns of potential U.S. corporate debt defaults exceeding $1 trillion due to ongoing credit tightening and banking crises. U.S. bank ratings dip, deposit outflows rise, marking a concerning environment.
The unresolved issues from the March 2023 banking crisis leave banks exposed to deposit outflows. The current high-rate environment curbs borrower interest in low-rate investments.
To counter inflation, the Federal Reserve shrinks its balance sheet, while new U.S. bond issuance surges. However, this could strain the Treasury market and banking sector, amplifying the corporate debt default issue.
Bloomberg’s U.S. Treasury index reports negative returns for U.S. Treasuries, and MSCI’s stress test model suggests an imminent recession if inflation persists.
Long seen as a global anchor, U.S. Treasuries have faced significant losses, fueling doubts about their role. Gregory Daco suggests reduced holdings and increasing gold reserves could turn U.S. Treasuries into high-risk assets.
China’s U.S. Treasuries holdings dip while gold reserves rise, indicating persistent efforts to fortify holdings. China’s ongoing sell-off of U.S. Treasuries shows no strategic concessions in purchase intent.
Amidst U.S. corporate debt default anticipation, the U.S. might consider leveraging gold to repay debt and interest, while some propose a return to the gold standard.
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