West Surges Ammunition Ahead of Ukraine’s All-Or-Nothing Offensive

Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for March 23, 2023: - Russian forces continue encircling the fortified cities of Bakhmut and now Avdeevka, two major points along Ukraine’s defense line in the Donbass; - Ukraine is gearing up for its upcoming offensive, carrying out drone strikes on Crimea and reconnaissance by force along the line of contact in Zaporozhye; - the stated goal of Ukraine according to Western reports is to cut the land-bridge between Crimea and the rest of Russia, though that would hardly isolate Crimea entirely; - Ukraine would suffer immense losses, just as they did during the Kharkov /Kherson offensives last year, with the addition of many more Russian troops and extensive defensive works created months in advance; - The US and EU are surging remaining stockpiles of artillery ammunition to Ukraine ahead of the offensive to sustain 2-4 months of intense fighting. Once depleted it will take years for the West to restore these stockpiles; - Russian shell production appears to have exceeded Western output as early as 2014-2015 and has continuously increased since meaning Russia’s ability to regenerate combat power exceeds the West’s at this moment; - Ukraine’s upcoming offensive should not be underestimated nor the prospects of a breakthrough, Russian forces have repeatedly demonstrated a preference for withdrawing over being encircled or suffering heavy casualties as part of its attrition strategy; References: Financial Times - Ukraine asks EU for 250,000 artillery shells a month (March 4, 2023): Financial Times - Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine (March 20, 2023): Reuters - EU seals plan to send a million artillery shells to Ukraine (March 20, 2023): NYT - Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon. (November 25, 2022): Alexander Mercouris - Russia Big Gains Bakhmut, UK MoD Alarmed Avdeevka; West Stakes All Kiev Offensive; Xi Jinping Moscow (March 21, 2023): The Telegraph - Putin is running out of time to win the ammunition war against the West (March 9, 2023): Novya Gazeta - Barren Barrels (November 2022): #:~:text=Handmade tanks,200–250 tanks a year. Ukrainian Armed Forces - Russia resumed production of 152-mm shells (November 2022): Jamestown Foundation - Russia Struggles to Maintain Munition Stocks (Part One) (December 2022): Jamestown Foundation - Russia Struggles to Maintain Munition Stocks (Part Two) (December 2022): The Moscow Times - Russia Says Ramping Up Ammunition Production for Ukraine War (January 2023): Defense News - Army acquisition chief would welcome tank ramp-up if Congress funds it (May 2022): Where to Find My Work: Website: Telegram: Twitter: Odysee (YouTube alternative): @LandDestroyer:8 Rumble (YouTube alternative): Weibo: ไบรอัน แฟนคลับ (Facebook): Line Group: Gab: VK (Facebook alternative): How to Support my Work (and thank you!): Buy Me A Coffee: Patreon: PromptPay: 0851547235 Cryptocurrency Donations: Ethereum (ETH): 0xee6ed93c3adc474450011e9af22939a0b9b312c7 BitCoin (BTC): 1AfGnbmHxA6cy9YKUSxysXvpJPyecpBKrr Monero (XMR): 845TCXx3pchSBXuDL7FHG679gbWD2wkHS6MJxuq7jFVsVFj7T6xsry747uhhGZUdkaRXbbrMfo5c8RnGfzGZ13KxQUdHVLR