West Surges Ammunition Ahead of Ukraine’s All-Or-Nothing Offensive
Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for March 23, 2023:
- Russian forces continue encircling the fortified cities of Bakhmut and now Avdeevka, two major points along Ukraine’s defense line in the Donbass;
- Ukraine is gearing up for its upcoming offensive, carrying out drone strikes on Crimea and reconnaissance by force along the line of contact in Zaporozhye;
- the stated goal of Ukraine according to Western reports is to cut the land-bridge between Crimea and the rest of Russia, though that would hardly isolate Crimea entirely;
- Ukraine would suffer immense losses, just as they did during the Kharkov /Kherson offensives last year, with the addition of many more Russian troops and extensive defensive works created months in advance;
- The US and EU are surging remaining stockpiles of artillery ammunition to Ukraine ahead of the offensive to sustain 2-4 months of intense fighting. Once depleted it will take years for the West to restore these stockpiles;
- Russian shell production appears to have exceeded Western output as early as 2014-2015 and has continuously increased since meaning Russia’s ability to regenerate combat power exceeds the West’s at this moment;
- Ukraine’s upcoming offensive should not be underestimated nor the prospects of a breakthrough, Russian forces have repeatedly demonstrated a preference for withdrawing over being encircled or suffering heavy casualties as part of its attrition strategy;
References:
Financial Times - Ukraine asks EU for 250,000 artillery shells a month (March 4, 2023):
Financial Times - Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine (March 20, 2023):
Reuters - EU seals plan to send a million artillery shells to Ukraine (March 20, 2023):
NYT - Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon. (November 25, 2022):
Alexander Mercouris - Russia Big Gains Bakhmut, UK MoD Alarmed Avdeevka; West Stakes All Kiev Offensive; Xi Jinping Moscow (March 21, 2023):
The Telegraph - Putin is running out of time to win the ammunition war against the West (March 9, 2023):
Novya Gazeta - Barren Barrels (November 2022):
#:~:text=Handmade tanks,200–250 tanks a year.
Ukrainian Armed Forces - Russia resumed production of 152-mm shells (November 2022):
Jamestown Foundation - Russia Struggles to Maintain Munition Stocks (Part One) (December 2022):
Jamestown Foundation - Russia Struggles to Maintain Munition Stocks (Part Two) (December 2022):
The Moscow Times - Russia Says Ramping Up Ammunition Production for Ukraine War (January 2023):
Defense News - Army acquisition chief would welcome tank ramp-up if Congress funds it (May 2022):
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